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WeatherBlog 22 2024/25 | Change of weather for the weekend?

Still very sunny, more unsettled weather on the horizon

04/09/2025 by Lea Hartl
The cool, sunny spring weather will increasingly turn into summer temperatures with the onset of the Föhn wind. A late onset of winter is not in sight, but at least some precipitation is possible in the south after the long sunny spell.

Current situation and outlook

There is not much to say. Western Europe lies within the sphere of influence of a huge, more or less stationary area of high pressure. The high lies between low pressure systems over the Atlantic and the Baltics and forms a classic omega pattern, i.e. a blocking weather situation that remains "stuck" in one place for a long time. The entire Alpine region has been very sunny since the end of last week. Temperatures in the western Alps are already significantly higher than in the east, where colder air is flowing in at the upper levels with a moderate northerly flow on the eastern flank of the high. Apart from a few clouds in the far east, this will not change much until the weekend.

According to current model opinions, a cut off low will move into the western Mediterranean region on Saturday-Sunday and conditions will become more unsettled. The upper air flow will turn to southerly directions, it will be foehn-like and probably very warm, especially in the typical foehn regions. There are precipitation options for the south from Sunday and into next week, although the models are still rather divided on the details.

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Dry, mild March

As has often been noted and criticized here, March was very dry, especially in the northern Alps. In retrospect, this is impressively illustrated once again by the European climate service Copernicus. The graph clearly shows the contrast between the very wet regions in the south (Spain, northern Italy) and the very dry parts of Germany, the UK and southern Scandinavia. The Alps were right on the border between wet and dry in March (we still remember the Südstau PowderAlerts!).

March 2025 was the warmest March on record in Europe, with Eastern Europe in particular far warmer than average. In Austria, the past March ranks 12th (lowlands) and 11th (in the mountains) in the measurement time series. In Switzerland, it is also 11th place. In addition to the monthly review, MeteoSwiss recently presented visually interesting but somewhat unusual representations of various climate parameters, see here.

Arctic sea ice: very low extent

Since the snow forecasts are not very promising at the moment, let's take a brief look at the sea ice. In the Arctic, sea ice usually reaches its maximum seasonal extent in March. This year, the maximum was reached on 22 March, covering around 14.3 million square kilometers. This corresponds to almost 40 times the area of Germany and is the lowest seasonal maximum of the satellite era. The sea ice extent has been calculated from satellite data since 1979. The minimum extent in summer has been a good 4 million km2 in recent years. Short-term forecasts for further developments are difficult and depend on wind, waves and weather. In the long term, the trend is steeply downwards in both winter and summer and it is to be expected that the sea ice will disappear completely in summer sooner or later.

The WeatherBlog is making further issues for this season dependent on the weather development. Maybe it will work out again with the südstau...

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