WeatherBlog 25 2015/16 | April continues to be wintry

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Starting situation

Between a low pressure system west of the Iberian Peninsula and an eastern Scandinavian trough, the Alpine region is currently experiencing calm, high-pressure weather. After the snowfall at the start of the week, it is largely sunny everywhere today with spring-like temperatures. The high-pressure influence will continue in the eastern Alps until tomorrow (Thursday), while it will already be cloudy in the west. Friday will be generally more unsettled with showers and still relatively mild temperatures.

Record warm March, El Niño weakens

Last March was the warmest March since measurements began in 1880, making it the eleventh consecutive month in which a global monthly temperature record has been broken. Similarly, the first three months of 2016 are the warmest such period since records began, reports the NOAA. January-March 2015, the previous record holder, was 0.28 degrees cooler. The last time there was a similarly strong El Niño from January to March was in 1998, when it was 0.45° cooler. While El Niño conditions continue to prevail at present, NOAA expects a switch to a neutral ENSO phase by early summer. For the second half of the year, there is a possibility that La Niña may drop in.

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Further developments

While the weather here in Germany is bobbing along, a massive trough is developing in north-eastern Canada, which is sliding further and further south. At the front of the trough (and supported by a cut-off low in the western Atlantic), warm air from the south is being shoveled towards Greenland, where the phase of unusually warm weather is likely to continue after a brief interruption. In a kind of downstream development to the east of the wedge, a cold air outbreak (arctic outbreak) occurs far to the south, accompanied by cyclogenesis. A massive trough will form in the area of Central Europe and polar air masses will slide directly towards us.

The whole thing will move closer and closer to the Alps on Saturday and by Sunday at the latest, a significant drop in temperature on the northern slopes of the Alps should bring snow to the (higher) valleys. In the south, it will initially remain friendlier with north föhn. The strongly meridional (wavy jet stream) general weather situation will tend to persist and so the cool, unsettled weather is likely to accompany us until around the middle of next week. I would assume that my colleague PowderAlert will be in touch again soon.

Record warm March, El Niño weakens

Last March was the warmest March since records began in 1880, making it the eleventh consecutive month in which a global monthly temperature record has been broken. Similarly, the first three months of 2016 are the warmest such period since records began, reports the NOAA. January-March 2015, the previous record holder, was 0.28 degrees cooler. The last time there was a similarly strong El Niño from January to March was in 1998, when it was 0.45° cooler. While El Niño conditions continue to prevail at present, NOAA expects a switch to a neutral ENSO phase by early summer. For the second half of the year, there is a possibility that La Niña may drop in.