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WeatherBlog 6 2025/26 | Ommm... ega

It's time to meditate and the weather is perfect for climbing

12/10/2025
Sebastian Müller
Various WeatherBlogs, regulars' table discussions and powder oracles have already hinted at it and we confirm: the winter weather is over for now. The infamous Omega weather pattern is currently establishing itself over Central Europe and it is already getting noticeably warmer. Whether there will be a summery Christmas, how much rain could fall and what this has to do with the polar vortex is discussed below. For the Omega weather situation, we recommend that nervous freeriders take a meditative "Ommm", inhale deeply through the nose and exhale with the belly. We hope this will help regulate stress levels for the time being.

Weather situation

The Omega weather situation is characterized by a high-pressure bridge over Central Europe, which tends to assume a stationary and therefore blocking state. Mild and dry air masses of subtropical origin are brought in from the south-east. It is a gradient-weak situation, i.e. pressure differences and the resulting currents are weak, and ultimately high fog and inversions are on the horizon in the early winter and therefore low-radiation season. In the Sentinel-2 satellite image, we can therefore identify distinctive fog patches over Lake Geneva.

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Prospects

The outlook is stable according to the Omega weather situation and sobering for freeriders. Mild temperatures, sunshine, high fog and inversion, everything that freeriders could possibly dislike. Only in the next few days will the foothills of a trough reach the Alpine region, unfortunately bringing more rain than snow, but not in devastating quantities. Nevertheless, this will not be good for the snow cover and its stability. Heavy precipitation can be observed at the ends of the Omega. An atmospheric river is moving across the Iberian Peninsula, and independent, mesoscale low-pressure systems are forming around the Black Sea and the Caucasus. For well-known reasons, we do not recommend flying to distant powder destinations, but are happy for the locals there. In the ECMWF ensemble models, the omega weather situation, which appears as a warm air temperature anomaly of more than 5 °C at 850 hPa, is very likely to persist until the next WeatherBlog, i.e. until December 17. Consequently, it is becoming apparent that the conditions for sport climbing will be more favorable for the time being, i.e. for ski touring and freeriding.


Polar Vortex Breakdown

The impending European "heatwave" is actually occurring at the same time as an Arctic cold air outbreak in North America. The stratospheric polar vortex is deformed and displaced from the pole. As a result, the mid-latitude jet stream becomes wavier, slower and more stationary. Unfortunately, we observe all too often that the "polar vortex breakdown" has a positive effect on the snow conditions in North America and a negative effect on those in our Alps. Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that this instability of the polar vortex, which often lasts for weeks, will also favor Europe and the Alps at times. Whether Christmas will be green and warm or white and cold is still written in the stars for serious meteorologists.

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