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Snow height prediction game 2021/22

It goes on!

by Anselm Köhler • 12/27/2021
Anselm during the betting game evaluation (symbolic photo)

Anselm at the betting game evaluation (symbolic photo)

Anselm at the betting game evaluation (symbolic photo)

Every fall has come to an end. Every winter, the first snow has enchanted the landscape. Every year, the bikes and climbing gear can be swapped for the skis from the summer camps at some point. This year was the same, only the snow climbing game extended the fall by 6 weeks and was on the road.

But now it's time for PowderAlert and the snow tip game! For the sixth time in a row, and once again there are plenty of prizes to be won, including an exclusive Scott ski, of which there are only 50 pairs and which Jérémie Heitz also rides! More on this below, but first the conclusion of last year's prediction game.

The winners

Although it continued to snow well into May, the prediction game ended with prediction #14 from 13.04.2021 at the start of the April snow thirst period. There was 29 cm of fresh snow, about half as much as the average prediction. Of course, such a weak tip no longer changes the ranking among the best, but it reflects the classic case of "winter is not over yet"-optimism.

Enough rambling. The 2020/2021 winners are:
1st place: bass with a deviation of 0.055 wins a pair of SCOTT SUPERGUIDE Freetour
2nd place: suizisthenewpow with a deviation of 0.062 wins a pair of the latest poles from SCOTT
3rd place: chevchelios with a deviation of 0.065 a SCOTT SHIELD Google

As always close, but well deserved! Congratulations to the winners! It should be noted that the first 10 players are really close to each other - so don't despair, the cards will be reshuffled next season.

In addition to the main winners, Python's random module has also selected 5 lucky winners:

  • muruaneq

  • JohnSoda

  • bergjunge

  • alexskadu

  • rachel

You will each win a €20 voucher from the internal PowderGuide store! If you are one of the lucky winners, please contact us at anselm@powderguide.com

Result of the 2020/21 prediction game

Results of the 2020/21 prediction game

Results of the 2020/21 prediction game

New game with the same rules

Whenever a "significant" storm brings plenty of fresh snow to the Alps, Ullr and his oracle are known to give an estimate of the expected amount of fresh snow as a PowderAlert. In a PA, not only the amount but also a rough core zone is mentioned. The prediction game takes place at a measuring station in the core zone: you predict the amount of fresh snow and then compare who was closest to the actual amount. For each PA, the measuring station, the period over which the prediction is made, the deadline for submitting a prediction and the initial snow depth are stated. The winner is the person who guesses the best over the season, of course...

And what's the prize?

The main prizes have been decided:
1st place a pair of SCOTT SCRAPPER Pro Model skis in a limited edition of just 50 pairs! (here's a review of the normal SCOTT SCRAPPER skis)
2nd place a new SCOTT Google (which model is still a surprise...)
3rd place a pair of SCOTT PURE Adjust SRS Poles

And there will be daily prizes again this time, each with a discount voucher for the community-tested products from the PowderGuide Shop.

How much snow is the new snow total?

The new snow total, i.e. the number in centimetres, is defined here as the maximum snow depth minus the initial snow depth - the image above illustrates the whole thing graphically. In this example, the forecast period is 48 hours with an initial snow depth of 75 cm. During these two days it most probably snowed most of the time. In the last few hours it snowed less or not at all, so that the snow cover settled and compacted. The maximum snow depth was 128cm, and this results in a new snow total of 128-75=53cm.

Note, even if new snowfall amounts are sometimes displayed at weather stations, our own definition applies in the prediction game. Here in the graphic, the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Graphical explanation of the new snow total in terms of the prediction game

Graphic explanation of the amount of fresh snow in terms of the prediction game

Graphic explanation of the amount of fresh snow in terms of the prediction game

Quota as a measure of deviation

The quota Q is defined as the deviation between the tipped (HN_t) and measured new snow sum (HN_m):

Q = | HN_t - HN_m | / HN_m ,

i.e. the amount of the difference between the tip and the measurement, normalized to the measurement. This results in the limit values Q = 0 for guessed to the nearest centimeter, Q = 1 for not guessed at all (HN_t = 0), and Q > 1 for completely wrong ... For the deviation percentages, the odds are multiplied by one hundred.

Don't be put off by the odds formula. Each PowderAlert is accompanied by the current intermediate score from the prediction game, so you always know where you and the competition stand.

And how do I win now?

Only the five best tips count. This means that the overall winner at the end of the season is the person with the lowest average of the best five odds. In plain language, this means that you don't have to play every tip and can also enter the betting game later in the year, because only five count anyway. As this winter is going to be awesome, there will be more than 15 PowderAlerts and prediction games...

How do I take part?

To take part, all you have to do is:
1) read the PowderAlerts regularly so as not to miss a prediction
2) follow the link to the forum
3) log in to the forum
4) submit a prediction, i.e. add your predicted snow total to the bottom of the prediction game post.

So that you always know in time about a new PA, there is an e-mail notification for every new prediction game. Simply register at anselm@powderguide.com!

Have fun with the 2021/2022 snow tip game: Ullr is keeping its fingers crossed!

Anselm during the betting game evaluation (symbolic photo)

Anselm at the betting game evaluation (symbolic photo)

Anselm at the betting game evaluation (symbolic photo)

This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

Show original (German)

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