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WeatherBlog 14 2020/21 | Changeable, then warm

After a very cold week, a very warm one is now approaching.

by Lea Hartl 02/17/2021
Easy come, easy go: The cold spell is over and will be replaced by Atlantic disturbances, which will initially bring some precipitation before sunshine and very warm temperatures prevail at the weekend.

Great weather

As quickly as the cold arrived last week, it has now disappeared again. At the beginning of the week, the Atlantic gained influence again and the harbingers of the current disturbances reached the Alps in the form of high clouds on Monday. The sunny, sometimes very cold weather is over and the corresponding Arctic air masses are out of reach again for the time being. What remains is a high wedge extending far to the north, stretching from Central Europe via Scandinavia to Svalbard and clearly disrupting the polar vortex in this area. From a large-scale perspective, the counterpart to this wedge is located in the western North Atlantic: very cold air masses flow southwards to the west of Greenland. Over the warmer ocean, they stimulate the development of low pressure. Over the next few days, an increasingly large-scale low-pressure complex will form there, pumping warm air northwards on its eastern side and thus further strengthening the aforementioned wedge.

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Weather outlook

Momentarily, several small disturbances will reach us in quick succession, but these are more likely to be grazing shots that will bounce off our high and be deflected before they can advance further east or bring much momentum to the weather. By the end of the week, the blocking effect will intensify and the foothills of the storms will no longer reach us.

Today, Wednesday, a weak cold front with a few rain or snow showers is active, but this will quickly dissipate and it should clear up everywhere in the morning, with relatively strong westerly winds. It will remain dry in the south. Thursday will be widely sunny, high cloud fields will pass through, but should not significantly hinder visibility. The zero degree line will move to just over 2000m. Friday will be a little more unsettled, at least in the north of the Eastern Alps, with clouds and perhaps a little precipitation (more rain than snow, not heavy). It's already sunny in the west. The weekend looks very sunny and stable throughout the Alps, with very mild temperatures. The zero degree line should be at 3000m and above by then...

Medium-term

As always, there is no guarantee, but it currently seems unlikely that we will emerge from the pre-spring phase (= very warm and lots of sunshine) before the middle of next week. The possible way out of the rather persistent general weather situation, which from today's perspective looks likely for the coming week, is as follows: Gradually, the North American cold pole of the polar vortex shifts slightly to the west, weakening the cold air flow onto the NW Atlantic and, as a result, the low pressure "bulge" over the Atlantic, which provides massive warm air advection over Scandinavia. The motor that supplies both the low pressure over the Atlantic and the high wedge over Central Europe with energy is virtually turned off. Without this engine, the situation will become much more zonal. The decisive factor for the weather in the Alps will then be whether the frontal zone is far enough south to produce mild and humid westerly weather with a mountain winter, or just a little more wind with consistent snowy temperatures.

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This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

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