WeatherBlog 2 2021/22 | Swampy weather, chance of changeover next week

Current situation and outlook

The Alps are still caught between a low in the western Mediterranean and widespread high pressure in the north. Recently, the slight southerly flow has led to a bit of foehn in susceptible regions, but overall the situation is very weak in terms of gradient. Swamp weather, characterized by little change. On the northern edge of the Alps, there is thick fog in many places.

This situation will hardly change up to and including the weekend. The Mediterranean low will shift a little and lose influence, while the Azores High will stretch towards Central Europe. As a result, the wind will shift to the north from today. It will still be quite cloudy above the high fog today and on Thursday, with perhaps a few raindrops or snowflakes here and there in the east. Where the high fog hangs, it is likely to reach quite high, so that only the higher mountains will rise above it at all. From Friday at the latest, the sun will prevail at the top, while the fog will continue to hang below. Those in the alert areas in the southwest will be able to enjoy the considerable amounts of fresh snow of the last few days in the sunshine. There won't be any more snow there for the time being either.

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Weather station on the Pitztal Glacier: Average snow depth at the moment. — Weather station on the Pitztal Glacier: average snow depth at the moment.

Glass ball

Since the next few days and the reliable forecast period offer little, let's take a look at next week to keep the hope of winter alive. The crystal ball scenarios are, as the name implies, future versions in the realm of possibility, but still too far away for reliable forecasts.

It is quite likely that it will get colder at the start of the new week. Cold air may flow south on the eastern flank of an area of high pressure that lies off the European Atlantic coast and extends as far as the British Isles. The major models do not yet agree on the further development. The GFS version (map at the bottom of the gallery) is currently more favorable with regard to the chances of precipitation: The high pressure system is moving slightly westwards and becoming a prominent wedge over Greenland. To the east of it, cold air is sliding far to the south, a low over the British Isles is steering fronts towards the Alps and the Mediterranean is also rumbling. Not bad conditions for winter down to low altitudes.

GFS, 500hPa geopotential and ground pressure, northern hemisphere. 17, 20, 22.11. High pressure, then colder air from Monday. — GFS, 500hPa geopotential and ground pressure, northern hemisphere. 17, 20, 22.11. High pressure, then colder air from Monday
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The situation is different with the ECMWF: Here, the high moves a little further west, so that the low pressure centers located downstream are also shifted compared to the GFS variant (maps at the bottom of the gallery). In this scenario, a more pronounced low pressure system develops over the Iberian Peninsula, while the low pressure in the north remains further away from the Alps. At the very end of the forecast period, the Greenland wedge with a cold air outbreak on the eastern flank also develops here.

This (or a more or less similar) development will certainly keep us busy in next week's WeatherBlog. Until then, we'll have to wait and see and make the best of the current situation, be it with atmospheric foggy walks or somewhere in the snow.