WeatherBlog 22 2021/22 | Spring fatigue

Current situation and outlook

A high-over-low situation usually ensures relatively friendly but somewhat unsettled weather. High-over-low means that an often self-contained high lies to the north ("over") a low. The whole thing is sometimes also called a Rex block and, like the Omega situation, is a "blocking" weather situation that hinders a zonal westerly drift and likes to stay in place for longer.

So also currently: The constellation "high over Scandinavia, low pressure south of it" will remain with us for the time being. However, the low pressure is shifting back and forth a little. This doesn't look like much on the big weather map, but it certainly has consequences for the weather in the Alpine region. At the moment, there is still a relatively pronounced west-east divide, with cold air in the east and an early summer feeling in the west. This divide will decrease over the next few days and it will gradually become warmer everywhere. The current will turn to more southerly directions and the southern slopes of the Alps will increasingly come under the influence of low pressure. Thursday and Friday are expected to be cloudy, wet and overcast in the south, while it will remain mostly sunny in the north with a light south föhn. The forecast for the weekend looks like a continuation of the unsettled, but not entirely unusable weather. There are no signs of a significant change in the general weather situation. It is likely to remain susceptible to showers, especially in the south, otherwise a sun-cloud mix with moderate temperatures can be expected.

In climate research, there are often two different sides to a question: "detection" and "attribution". In other words: quantifying changes (detection) and attributing changes to a causal, causal process (attribution). The former is also often much more complex than it might seem. How do you even find out what kind of weather conditions have occurred where over the last 30 or 50 or 100 years? On what data basis? What are the uncertainties? What is a "real" trend and what is just statistical noise? A lot is currently happening with regard to changes in weather patterns, both in terms of detection and attribution, as we are slowly entering an area in which the time series are firstly long enough for climatological evaluations and secondly should already at least partially reflect the suspected changes.

We remain curious, wish you a nice and long late winter and then a successful summer, no matter how the weather turns out!