Ullr has also taken this, admittedly slightly modified, wisdom from the IT industry to heart and, after a rather half-hearted northern interlude, is now giving us another Südstau that's really something.What's happening? It's snowing, more or less from Thursday to Sunday and, depending on the region, a lot, more or a monstrous amount. I want to divide the whole thing into two phases, because it's extremely difficult and highly unreliable to make a statement until Monday, which is why the amounts are only available until Saturday morning, as that's when most people can get out into the powder. Friday evening or even Saturday I'll give you an update on Ullr's latest gifts and the prospects until Monday from the Temple of Pow. Where is it happening? As so often this winter in the south from the Maritime Alps to Monte Rosa, Adamello and Slovenia.
The amounts: Everyone of you likes to look at colorful maps and the internet buzz grows immeasurably depending on the shade of red, so here's a little dubious Ullr-booster due to the special situation: Up to 1 m of fresh snow will fall in many areas by Monday. In the east of Italy and the Dolomites, there may be signs of significantly more, so it could even be an absurd 2 m here. Important: this is not a forecast, but the oracle, who can't quite escape the hype and looks into the sphere in amazement. Yes, it's officially going to be a monster dump! Not that I work for the official Dump Ministry alongside PowderGuide, but even the oracle doesn't see a possible 2 m every day, and if there were such a ministry, the dump would be certified by a secretary of state.
Disclaimer: This could turn out differently, so today there are only the quantities until Saturday. What about the snow line? Here we have the sticking point again, because it will probably be quite warm in between, which can lead to the snow thawing, even if it doesn't rain. Until Friday morning, this will remain rather unproblematic and below 1000 m. Then, however, warm air will be brought in from the southeast, reaching its peak on Saturday before the snow line drops below 1000 m again on Sunday. But it won't be as warm as two weeks ago, so I don't actually see a snow line above 1200-1500 m even in the southeast. However, the yellowing could put a spanner in the works again up to 1600-1800 m, so the fun in the trees will be spoiled. The west tends to be somewhat favored: the snow line should remain lower here, but Saturday will be quite warm here too. This means that even if it still snows to below 1000 m, the glopp can be found up to 1500 m, which is related to the zero degree line. Wind: Will probably play a role as with any decent accumulation, but won't be a hurricane with only 30 cm of fresh snow like the last northwest accumulation. The further east, the more wind is the motto. Bluebird? I don't see anything before Monday that will be more than a few holes in the west on Saturday morning. In general, however, you should be very careful above the tree line, because when the crowds arrive, it will be really unpleasant until the whole thing settles.
The amounts until Saturday: from the Hautes Alpes to the Maritime Alps it will probably be 35-80 cm in this direction. Further north, as in the rest of the northern Alps from France to the Rax in eastern Austria, it will quickly become zero to decoration of 5 cm, garnished with foehn. From Monte Rosa to the Upper Engadine, there will be 35-70 cm of new snow, depending on the accumulation and trajectory with a possible surprise of 10-20 cm extra, which means we'll reach the amounts in the east, because this is where Ullr is likely to really let off steam.
From the Adamello area to Slovenia, 80-140 cm of snow will fall and I wouldn't rule out 160-170 cm in the accumulation areas of the Dolomites, but overall I would also indicate an uncertainty of 10-30 cm downwards, as the models also like to overestimate the corner in the east. Be that as it may, it will be a monster dump. As the congestion is a real one, some of it should reach the main ridge, but depending on the distance, more likely half of the above-mentioned amounts further south. There are of course exceptions, such as the Gotthard area, where there is usually only a little less fresh snow. Avalanche danger: I mean it honestly; look at the amounts and think for yourselves, if it turns out like this, skier avalanches in the east are the smaller problem. And that's only until Saturday! So: pack your car, book accommodation far away from avalanche trains (in the east it can be really unpleasant if it turns out the way the models want) and go powdering in the trees, if something still opens up there. In the west it will be an exciting, but not quite as excessive dump. You can find out what happens on Saturday and Sunday here on Friday evening or Saturday as a live update. Powder to the People!Your Oracle P.S. If the models are wrong, I'll look pretty old.
