After weeks of TV weather forecasters rejoicing and finding warm temperatures 10 degrees above average and sunshine "totally great", the heat is finally over again and we're rejoicing because Ullr isn't leaving the field to summer without a sound, but is at least giving it a serious fight back. I have good news for all those who were hoping it would now head north, because apparently it will start in the south, as so often this season, but will then spill eastwards from central Switzerland into the northern Alps. A dump ALSO IN THE NORTH! Let's start with the easy stuff, the snow line. First it will start to snow in the south above 1600 to 1800 m, but as the front moves through, the snow line will drop below 1000 m everywhere from northwest to southeast. Thankfully this will also happen before or with the main precipitation, so most of it will fall as POW and not as glop. Praise be to Ullr!
On Saturday afternoon or early evening, snow is already falling in north-western Switzerland up to 1000 m, then on Sunday afternoon also in Slovenia, i.e. the south-eastern end of the Alps. This alert is valid until Sunday or Monday, because what happens then is still completely unclear. The only thing that is clear is that it will stay cool for the rest of the week, so you won't have to run into an avalanche on Monday in a desperate search for the powder fix, but can wait until the amounts have combined!
Now for the amounts: Ullr covers our powder table throughout the Alps, but the largest amounts are from Monte Rosa to Adamello on the south side, as we will also have a lot of congestion there. The amounts given here are for areas above 1800 m, as I can't say for sure when, where and how the snow line will drop, so let's start in the west: The French Alps will see 30 to 60 cm by Monday, but it's unlikely to get any more than that due to the lack of accumulation components. Bad luck and lucky amounts of +/- 10 cm for very local effects. The western massifs will probably get the most and the amounts will decrease towards Italy. On the Italian side, it will probably only be 15 to 30 cm.
In the north, there is a zone of 30 to 60 cm from Mt. Blanc to Salzburgerland, whereby a hotspot around the Arlberg could allegedly also get 70 cm. I don't believe it, but depending on where the Italian depression curls in, there could actually be a hotspot in this area of the northern Alps. To the east of this, the amounts in the north will probably decrease (or not, depending on the path) and only 15 to 30 cm will be reached. In the south, 20 to 50 cm will theoretically fall in Aosta. This will be followed by a fairly reliable hot spot from Monte Rosa to Adamello, where 50 to 80 cm will almost certainly fall in the accumulation, and depending on the snow hole and the intensity of the accumulation, it may even crack the meter mark in isolated cases. The rest of the southern Alps as far as Slovenia will be somewhere between 40 and 60 cm according to today's models. It will be difficult where the sun comes out, as quite humid air masses will remain over the Alps. The best chances are in the northwest on Sunday afternoon and here and there from Monday. However, this will tend to be in the morning, as showers are likely to form in the air mass at midday.
In the medium term, there will still be some fluff here and there during the week, but above all it will stay cold so that you can go powder hunting on the north side. So: put the melancholy and beer aside this weekend and swap the firn gliders for the powder slats.
Powder to the people!
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