The new PowderAlert is due and there's powder again. This time again in the south and west. However, the amounts will be well below the Christmas alert and won't break any records. But it should be enough for the odd face shot. Once again, Ullr has no sympathy for the northern side of the Alps and first sends the Föhn ahead of it, only to add cosmetic snowfall later. In the far north and northeast, the cosmetic snowfall may be completely absent (east of Innbruck too). The dump starts on January 4, ends on the 5th and the fresh snow is already fried by the sun on the 6th almost everywhere except for high northern slopes in the south.
Before we get to the amounts, we have to say something about the snow line: while it may snow below 1000 m in southern Switzerland, the Aosta Valley and Monte Rosa area, and it will almost certainly stay snowy from 1200 m from Aosta, Monte Rosa to Ticino, it may rain up to 2000 m in the Fribourg Alps, the lower Valais and France. In the east of the southern Alps, it should remain snowy above around 1400-1600 m, but this will depend on the intensity of the precipitation and the magical precipitation cooling that it produces.
You see, these inflows and leeward low formations are complicated. In the north, the high precipitation limits apply until the snow line also drops below 1000 m with the onset of the cold-front cosmetics. Did I mention that the whole thing is accompanied by wind and foehn storms? No? So in the north, the soil of the bike trails and the 20 cm of (floating) snow cover will also be blown away before they disappear again under 10 cm of snow. In the south, the wind in the high mountains will also play a role. So stay in the trees on January 5, respect.at- and -.ch-(t) your borders and try to peek carefully above the tree line in the south on Monday, if you are favored by the holiday. In the far west, it's already clearing up from Sunday lunchtime. Everywhere except the Christmas Monster Dump areas (see Alert 4) the base is weak, so don't just worry about the fresh snow, but also the snowpack underneath. The particularly greedy and or desperate can also play in the trees in the south as early as the 4th, but most of it won't fall there until midday.
The fresh snow: Finally something positive. It's coming. And it's coming in quantities suitable for face shots. Even though the models have halved it in the last two days. In the Maritime Alps up to the Ecrin / La Grave, in Monte Rosa, Ticino, Bergell, Upper Engadine, Adamello all the way over to the Dolomites and the Julian Alps, there is between 40 and 80 cm in the accumulation areas in the south, although I expect the upper limit to be in the far east. I don't see the magic meter in the given possibilities and the shortness of the jam, but in the Gotthard area, the Italian southwest, the Swiss Goms and generally the adjacent areas of the Swiss main ridge over to Austria in Carinthia it can be 25-50 cm. However, the main Austrian ridge east of western Tyrol will see significantly less. From the Arlberg to the Bernese Alps and the main Tyrolean ridge it could be 15-30 cm. In south-western Switzerland and northern France, a zone with 20-35 cm follows the adjacent areas.
You realize that there are a lot of zones and possibilities, which is due to the uncertainty, which I also want to mention in a possible deduction in all areas between 5 and 15 cm. There probably won't be much upwards. Not even in the potholes. You weren't mentioned again and you're sitting on the Dachstein, Kitzbühel or the Ötscher? You're being played really badly this winter, because in all the regions not mentioned it will be minus 15 (thanks, Föhn!) to +10cm of snow, which won't do anyone any good. Ullr is a harsh god sometimes.
And after that? Nothing will probably follow for a long time, making the Northern Alps even more bike-friendly with moderate warmth. Whether the reality will then, like individual model runs, tinker with a changeover between January 11 and 13 will of course be announced on Ullr's preferred internet platform, but as I see the circulation, it could very well fall through. The why is up to my colleague from the WeatherBlog who has already pointed out the Newfoundlanders and their freezer. To reassure you: The USA also has a lousy winter. Only the reliable Siberian air gives Japan some powder.
So: sacrifice at the Ullrschrein. Drive the car south from the German-speaking world for the dump and in the medium term virtuously drink beer, wax skis and do other things pleasing to Ullr so that finally some winter comes to the whole of the Alps. Powder to the People! Your Oracle
