PowderAlert 9 2016/17 | North jam and real winter

Areas and time period:

The alert applies from the French Alps to the Vienna Woods, so you can enjoy a croissant and a Viennese Melange in the powder snow at the same time. The core should go from northern France to the Arlberg, and I have to venture quite far onto the thin ice now, because I don't really like that period. I'll leave the alert in place until Saturday night, with most of it coming by Saturday morning. But it will more or less flake through from tomorrow, so I can't wait until tomorrow, Thursday, to set the alarm. That's unpleasant for me, because you know: all precipitation forecasts from 48 hours in the future are sometimes more of a model wishful thinking than seriously useful.

Why is there no alarm for the southeast, because the colorful maps predict powder in Italy, Slovenia and Carinthia? Because I don't believe that the flow with the leeward low will be right and that it will head towards Croatia/Balkans rather than the Alps. But I'll give hypothetical amounts.

Wind:

It's already whistling violently in between. It reaches veritable gale force and turns in all directions from SW to north at altitude. After the wind shifts to the north on Friday, it will be a little less, which will increase the chances of powder at the top, but also the risk of covering anything that has blown in. But since I'm preaching to the faithful here, you know that looking at the LLBs is standard.

Snow line and amounts:

It's a bit of a rollercoaster, but the good thing for us is that it comes from a very low level, can briefly rise to possibly 1000m and then go all the way down again to go back into the deep powder loop on Friday evening. In the inner Alps, it may even stay completely below 1000m.

From the Isere department to the Schneeberg, 30-50cm will probably come. In the core from Savoy to the Arlberg it will be around 40-70cm and I don't rule out 80-90cm in isolated potholes. Where these will be varies in the models. One large model sees them more in the French/Swiss border area, the other from Glarnerland to the Arlberg. I'm leaning towards option 2, but as always, this will only affect the one or two outliers.

In the south-east, 20-40cm could also come, but I think the low pressure will leave too quickly for that to really happen.

Where should I go?

Saturday In the trees, or in the far west on the sheltered meadow. In northern Switzerland and western Austria, you need to know in your areas whether it's enough for trees or whether you still have to weasel. It will hardly break open in the northern congestion. There may be gaps in the clouds here and there on Sunday before it possibly snows again in the evening.

A tip will be hard, because more tends to come from the West, but the Deep East has a more user-friendly base. However, Ullr likes mature believers who make their own decisions. For people who are traveling further afield, I would rather recommend the Salzburgerland or further east.

Mid-term:

It will probably stay cold, but it's not clear whether it will snow again towards Monday or not. After that, however, there will be less fresh snow, so you can plan a tour for the following weekend.

Here's the prediction game for this alert.

Powder to the people!

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