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WeatherBlog 1 2019/20 | On your marks, get set, südstau

Brilliant weather start to the new season

by Lea Hartl 11/20/2019
After our colleague Orakel has already reported four times, it's high time for the WeatherBlog to return from its summer slumber. We are starting the season with a classic overview of the very interesting general weather situation:

Current situation

Last week was characterized by heavy snowfall in the south, which also spilled over the main ridge here and there. On the whole, however, it was much drier on the northern side of the Alps - the foehn was more at work here. The bird's eye view of the northern hemisphere shows that the jet stream over Europe is currently meandering, i.e. it is making a kind of loop that runs from south to north over the Alps. This has been the case since it started snowing in the south.

The corresponding pressure distribution looks, roughly speaking, as follows: Trough in the west, massive, blocking high in the east, which is impossible for Atlantic disturbances to get past. These slide past the British Isles via France towards the Mediterranean, from where new fronts are constantly being directed towards the Alps by the prevailing southerly flow. Comparatively cool air from the north, which meets the warm and humid Mediterranean, further favors the development of low pressure and independent Mediterranean lows form.

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Outlook

For the time being, the foehn-like southerly flow and the corresponding north/south dichotomy of the weather will remain in place. Today, Wednesday, will be comparatively calm. In the western Alps it will snow or rain a little on the south side, but not very intensively. In the north, the weather will be clear, provided you make it above the fog in many valleys. In the east, also south of the main ridge, probably dry and generally prone to high fog. Towards the eastern edge of the Alps, the clouds will remain denser and a few drops or snowflakes will fall depending on the altitude. The southerly flow will become stronger again on Thursday. Precipitation is likely to increase again in the south, especially in the west, while the north will continue to be foehn-like and more relaxed. The situation will remain more or less unchanged on Friday, with precipitation increasing again in the west.

Towards Saturday, a low pressure system is expected to slide into the Mediterranean, which could result in intense accumulating precipitation in the southwest again, with a complementary foehn storm situation in the north. Sunday is likely to be calmer again and, from today's perspective, quite friendly, as will Monday.

Lots of snow, not much cold, crystal ball speculation

If you think it's going to be pretty cold in view of the pictures of Alpine villages drowning in snow, you might be subjectively right if you've just had horizontal snow blown in your face. Objectively, however, it is significantly warmer in large parts of Europe than the climatological average at the current time of year (picture left).

The crystal ball range of the forecasts indicates a possible stratospheric warming at the beginning of December. If this happens as currently assumed by some models, it would even be a fairly pronounced warming event, and unusually early in the season. Here's a nice animation if anyone wants to see a 3D representation of atmospheric temperatures. The stratospheric warming, if it occurs, could result in a disturbed polar vortex in the longer term, which for us tends to mean blocking conditions and less rapidly changing westerly weather.

Updates on this next week!

Photo gallery

This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

Show original (German)

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