WeatherBlog 12 2020/21 | Much too warm

Current situation and outlook

The Alps are located in a strong westerly to south-westerly current, which will be decisive for our weather over the next few days. Today, Wednesday, the cold front of an Atlantic low arriving from the west will cause rain, especially on the northern slopes of the Alps, see also the current PowderAlert. As you can read there in more detail, the snow line is climbing higher and higher and in many regions you can expect rain up to over 2000m. As a result, the current will turn a little more SW and it will be a little warmer again, but also sunnier. Thursday morning will be very sunny, especially in the eastern Alps, with a little more cloud towards the west, which will later spread eastwards. However, it will remain dry almost everywhere, albeit windy - and of course much too warm for the time of year. Friday will be similar in principle, but cloudier and with fewer windows of sunshine.

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500hPa geopotential and ground pressure, northern hemisphere, for Thursday 4.2.21: Very warm westerly or SW flow.

meteociel.fr

Towards the weekend, it will become increasingly foehn-like with a further turn to more southerly directions. Light accumulating precipitation is likely in the south, with temperatures remaining mild. At present, it does not look as if the blocking high pressure that briefly establishes itself in the Atlantic will last any longer. New lows are constantly forming in the NW Atlantic, which, after a brief struggle, will set the westerly slide in motion again over the next few days, despite the tough high pressure over Greenland and the generally rather out-of-round polar vortex. A more permanent Atlantic block might have brought the chance of a southward slide of the cold air mass in the north-east, but the resurgent westerly flow is also expected to bring cooling and further precipitation from the north-west on Monday, although no Arctic cold. In summary: Winter is not over yet, neither in terms of the calendar nor snow, but it will be taking a break for the next few days.

Reading tip

If you're currently sitting at home in the rain and want a wintry, spooky topic to entertain you, you can take a look at new scientific findings that shed light on the mystery surrounding the mysterious Dyatlov Pass incident.

On the night of February 1, 1959, a group of 9 Russian hikers/skiers perished in a hitherto mysterious manner. The bodies were found well below their tents, some with serious injuries, and the tents had been cut open. Signs of an avalanche were not noticed by the search teams and the avalanche theory was also doubted due to the low slope steepness. Instead, many alternative theories quickly emerged, from yetis and aliens to secret military tests and other dark machinations.

Outlook: Wet and mild, then sunny and mild.

LH

The Russian authorities reopened the case in 2015, probably to put an end to renewed speculation, and came to the conclusion that it must have been an avalanche. However, without providing particularly solid evidence, which satisfied neither the conspiracy theorists nor many avalanche researchers. The group around John Gaume, now known for the avalanche and snow model on which the animations in the Frozen films are based, has now also taken up the cause and modeled the snow situation at the group's campsite on February 1, 1959 on the basis of terrain and historical weather data. The result: most likely an avalanche, probably a small but destructive one, which hit the camp during the night, whereupon the group members, some of whom were seriously injured, fled towards the forest, where they probably froze to death. The scientific publication can be found here, while a less technical summary of the gruesome event and the scientific study can be found at National Geographic.

Alas: Punxsutawney Phil reports: 6 more weeks of winter! Praise be to the groundhog.