WeatherBlog 17 2025/26 | The wet westerly weather is coming to an end

Current situation and outlook

The ongoing series of Atlantic fronts has come to an end and a pronounced high over Central Europe is shaping our weather from today (Wednesday). After the cold, snowy phase last week, a significant warming has already set in by the weekend. The snow at lower altitudes melted away in the warm rain. Now it's getting warmer again, but in contrast to the last few days, the sun is also making an appearance. The zero degree line is likely to rise to over 3000 m today in the extremely mild air mass and settle somewhere between 2500 and 3000 m over the next few days.

The flow will turn from southwest (very mild today) to west (still mild but a little cooler) from tomorrow. The extensive high wedge will remain and deflect the frontal zone to the north. This means that the Atlantic disturbances, which in principle are still rushing in from the west, will pass to the north and have little effect on the weather. A small front will probably brush the northern Alps on Saturday, but apart from a few clouds, it will bring little news.

Avalanche situation

In addition to the recent amounts of fresh snow and precipitation, the avalanche situation is also impressive. In western Austria (Vorarlberg, Tyrolean Oberland), level four was declared on Monday last week (February 16) from the afternoon above the tree line due to wind and fresh snow on a weak layer of old snow. The level four at higher altitudes remained in place for the rest of the week and was gradually extended to the more easterly parts of the country. On Saturday (warming), the danger level below the tree line was raised from 2 to 3, while the level four remained in place at higher altitudes. As of today (25.2.), we have now had 10 days in a row with level 4 above the tree line, if the WeatherBlog has counted correctly.

The Swiss had seven days with level 4 (on Tuesday, February 17, regionally even level 5) and have been back to a tense three since Monday of this week. The latest SLF Ava blog speaks of over 1000 (!!) avalanche reports in four days, 995 of them last weekend. These figures are not perfect (e.g. double reports), but they paint a very clear picture of the extraordinary situation.

The old snow problem will be with us until the end of the winter, at least that much can be said about the further development of the danger situation. The SLF(Ava blog) and the Tyrolean Avalanche Warning Service(blog) are already taking a more differentiated look at further developments. The rule of thumb is that people can still disturb a weak layer at a depth of up to around one meter. In the north and west of Switzerland, there has been well over 2 meters of fresh snow over the last two weeks and even with the settling, problematic layers are now buried relatively deep here. Triggering is therefore less likely, but is of course still possible, for example in places with less snow.

The Tyrolean LWD points out that it has only snowed so much in the west and northwest that the "weak layer deeply buried" effect plays a role. Here, too, the emphasis is on numerous, but still remaining danger spots and the uneven distribution of the snow cover. Final quote from the LWD blog: "So from a period of maximum spontaneous avalanche activity, we are now entering a phase predestined for people being triggered!"

There is at least some hope of firn for the next few days.

Regardless of the current situation, there is a survey by the European Avalanche Warning Services on "understandable language" in the situation report, all interested parties are invited to participate: Links to the survey in various languages

Further links that are relevant to the topic:

Ava-Blog SLF February 13-19
Avalanche Report Blog (February 24)