WeatherBlog 19 2025/26 | Winter is (maybe) not over yet!

Current situation and outlook

The Omega is slowly moving eastwards and we are increasingly coming under the influence of more humid air masses in the west and southwest. As a result, there were more and more cumulus clouds yesterday and today (Wednesday) denser clouds will move through with a small disturbance, with a few showers here and there. A weak cold front will reach us on Thursday. Temperatures will drop a little and it will snow a little, but the amounts will remain manageable (around 10-20 cm in the favored regions, otherwise just cosmetic - see PG snow map). By Friday it will be over again and it will be quite friendly everywhere.

The development at the weekend will be interesting. Overall, everything is still very uncertain, but the model runs also offer wintry options. A much stronger cold front is on the cards for Saturday, which could also bring significant cold air from the north. Depending on whether and how far this spills over into the Mediterranean region, there is potential for südstau - see also the currently quite optimistic, deterministic PG new snow map.

So what was it like with sand in the past? Is the frequency of Saharan dust increasing here? The short answer is: no, rather not, or rather possible trends are ambiguous and difficult to quantify. Measurement data is relatively scarce, but there are relatively long time series from the Jungfraujoch and Monte Cimone, for example. At Hoher Sonnblick, real-time data can be viewed and compared with the webcam.

In the time series from Monte Cimone (2003-2023) discussed in this study, the number of days with Saharan dust transport fluctuates from year to year, but there is no longer-term trend. The situation is similar at the Jungfraujoch - seasonal fluctuations and individual outlier years with particularly high levels can be recognized, but the data do not provide any trends. In this case too, the time series spans around 20 years.

For a deeper look into the past, ice cores can be used if you have them to hand. There is a corresponding study on a drill core from Colle Gnifetti (Monte Rosa), probably the most famous ice core location in the Alps. Most of the glacier ice in the Alps is temperate (around zero degrees) and relatively young (a few hundred years). Sites where the ice is significantly older (several thousand years) are rare and Colle Gnifetti is one of them.

The Saharan sand study looks at a period of around 2000 years based on the core. On this time scale, there are phases with increased dust accumulation that stand out from the (very) long-term average, such as a period from 870-1000 and at the beginning of the Little Ice Age around 1300. The authors summarize in conclusion: There are phases with more dust transport and those with less. This is probably related to large-scale circulation patterns, but the fluctuation ranges are high. In a speculative look into the future, they assume that dust transport will tend to decrease as a result of climate change due to changes in circulation, whereby increased periods of drought on the other hand could lead to more dust being transported.

In any case, we recommend the linked studies as a basis for chairlift discussions during the next Saharan dust storm!