The end of autumn in Austria was the warmest on record. In September it was on average 0.7°C warmer than the long-term average, in October 2.2°C, and November is likely to be even warmer with an expected 3.8°C above average. (Source: ZAMG) If December is not exceptionally cold, it can be assumed that 2014 will also set a new temperature record for the year as a whole. (Source: ZAMG)
Good year for the glaciers despite warm temperatures
The many south and south-westerly exposures in recent months ensured warm, but also relatively wet weather in the Alps. There was a lot of summer snowfall, at least above 3000 m, which is good news for the glaciers. Many of the high-altitude glaciers on the main Alpine ridge recorded a balanced mass balance or even slight mass gains in the hydrological year 2013/14 (= October 2013 to October 2014). For the glaciers, the course of the summer is much more important than the winter, as nothing usually melts in winter anyway. Even a slight increase in sugar in summer slows down the melting process considerably, as the white fresh snow greatly increases the albedo of the otherwise grayish ice, so that a large part of the incoming radiation is reflected. The summer of 2013 was also relatively gentle for many glaciers, allowing snow reserves to be retained in the nutrient areas, which continued to grow in 2014. The melting of the glacier tongues is of course still continuing - a positive mass balance simply means that more snow has been added at the top than has melted at the bottom. Here is areport on the glaciers of South Tyrol and here are some impressions of the mass balance measurements that WeatherBlog took part in.
And what about the snow?
The ski resorts are suffering from the warm temperatures, as it is not possible to make snow. At high altitudes, the snow is holding up quite well, at least on the north side, as the sun no longer has enough power at the end of November to do anything there. If only it weren't for the wind... On the south side, however, it looks like spring in many places, even at high altitudes, including wet snow avalanches.
The stable high over Eastern Europe, which has been with us for a while now, is steering slightly humid air from the south-east towards the Alps. In the mountains it's relatively sunny with a light foehn wind, while in many valleys there is persistent high fog at the inversion limit and a pile of fine dust underneath. You get a bit bored and look to North America, where entire cities are covered in snow, so it's not really funny anymore. Our colleague here has come up with the idea that Lake Chiemsee would have to be enlarged about 300 times and relocated a little in order to produce a lake effect in Vienna, like the one that caused two meters of fresh snow in Buffalo. Alternatively, you could also move Vienna to the Baltic Sea, make the Baltic Sea smaller and enlarge Scandinavia.
Further prospects
Little will happen until the weekend, but after that we can look forward to a possible change in the general weather situation. The progressive warming at high altitudes will lead to a split in the polar vortex and if the Azores high then slides a little up into the North Atlantic, the path would be clear for cool air from the north, which ideally would still have moisture packed in over the Atlantic. I wouldn't expect a mega winter at the start of the week, but temperatures should slowly drop to a level appropriate for the time of year. A reversal of the established situation, as is beginning to appear, would once again be beneficial for the north in terms of precipitation. The south would be left empty-handed, but it has been very spoiled recently. Until then: wait and see, drink tea and keep your fingers crossed for the crystal ball.
