The permanent high that has accompanied us for so long is increasingly weakening, while a powerful low near Iceland is becoming stronger and stronger, bringing very stormy holidays to parts of northern Europe. Between this Atlantic low and the remnants of the high over the continent, the Alps are caught in a south-westerly flow, bringing mild, sometimes damp weather.
Current situation
In this image of the current wind conditions, we can see that the current has a zonal (west-east) component, but also a meridional (north-south) component. The Atlantic current from the west hits the European continent and turns to the north. This is because our well-known high is weakening, but is still strong enough to block the path of an entire western highway. This is referred to as a "mixed" circulation and in this specific case as a cyclonic south-westerly situation. Mild, relatively humid air is transported to us from the south.
The graphic is available here as an animation. The WeatherBlog thinks this tool is great and recommends playing around with it.
Outlook
The most exciting weather is currently in the direct catchment area of the aforementioned low in the North Atlantic. It has quickly developed into a serious structure with extremely low core pressure and threatens to hit the British Isles as a hurricane tomorrow Wind animation British Isles Thursday. The low pressure system is steering various smaller peripheral lows, which will also touch the Alps tomorrow and on Friday and cause precipitation, especially in the south-western Alps, see the article by colleague Orakel. A few flakes will also snow further east, but don't expect much from this event here. The weekend should be reasonably calm and partly sunny. The weather development next week will also depend on the low pressure complex in the North Atlantic. In terms of snow, a further shift of the low geopotential towards southern Scandinavia would be desirable, which would allow moist cold air to push up to the Alps and thus snow from the north-west from Christmas.
White Christmas is only likely in the mountains or where there is already snow. In the lowlands, it is likely to remain far too mild, as is usually the case. For the British Isles, the next strong storm seems to be on the cards for Christmas. It remains to be seen whether and to what extent this will also affect northern Germany. At least the weather is moving again!
