PowderAlert 3/2014 | The alarm before the changeover

Let's start with the good news: The drought is over. Something is coming out of the sky again in the medium term. But why wander into the distance when the good - at least in terms of time - is so close at handThere is already powder this weekend. Unfortunately not where most readers of this alert live, namely in German-speaking countries, because it's snowing in the direction of the Mediterranean. A region that is usually treated rather neglected by Ullr with nice-sounding spaceship names like Isola 2000 or delicious dishes like Limone Piemonte. A small depression that is supposed to form over the Mediterranean is bringing snow to the south-western Alps. And not in short supply. The question is, how far north will it get? Some models also see respectable amounts in the Engadine, Ticino and northern France, others rather not. What is certain is that the Maritime Alps are likely to get quite a lot of snow. Depending on the model, up to 1 meter of fresh snow in the southernmost areas. All areas south of La Grave and the Ecrin massif should benefit from this with amounts between 50 and 100 cm. However, the hundred centimeters will probably only come in almost at the Mediterranean and in optimal south-westerly conditions: Orcieres les Merlettes in the south of the Ecrin and Isola 2000 in the far south are possible. However, as the models like to estimate such developments generously and there is no massive permanent accumulation, I see a risk discount of 10 to 20 cm here. Nothing will go up. The Italian border region should also receive quite a bit, but somewhat less due to the shielding, so that 35 to 60 cm should fall there in the south in Piemonte. The neighboring regions such as Hautes Alpes and the Sestrierre region should receive between 20 and 50 cm. And now we are faced with the question of how far north it will go. At the moment, western Switzerland, northern France, the Monte Rosa region, Ticino and possibly the Upper Engadine are also expected to receive 15 to 50 cm. Why 15 to 50 cm? Because it's not certain and a 100 km shift in the mini low can decide whether you can go powdering seriously or just have to open a beer in frustration. However, there is a very high probability that virtually nothing will reach northern Switzerland and western Austria. The amounts there are likely to be between 0 and 20 cm. Further east and in eastern Italy, it is more likely to remain at 0-0 cm. Sorry. In the medium term, it will finally snow, because from Christmas the storms will no longer just be raging on the Atlantic, but will also unload their powder cargo with an extremely intense westerly drift here. However, the snow line, which will fluctuate somewhere between 1000 and over 2200, is likely to be problematic. More on this in the Christmas alert. Whether it then gets cooler from 27.12., as indicated, and remains wet, will of course be announced in the usual place. So keep sacrificing diligently in the Ullrschrein, so that not only the amount of powder under the tree is right for Christmas, but also the snowfall line." Powder to the People!Your Oracle PS. Editor's note: The photos are not recent, but archive material. Unfortunately, we don't have any convincing powder pictures from the areas mentioned in the alert. So if you have any great pictures from Isola 2000 & Co. you are welcome to send them to us. A "thank you" is guaranteed! To the corresponding forum thread, which contains the latest speculations, trends and feedback...