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WeatherBlog 7 2020/21 | New year, new südstau?

Quite sunny on New Year's Eve, then south-facing again

by Lea Hartl 12/30/2020
After the südstau is before the südstau, or: To those who have, shall be given. The Christmas pattern is repeating itself and a calmer phase today and tomorrow will be followed by the next stormy southerly situation on New Year's Day. The focus of the precipitation will once again be in the south-east and we are once again waiting for a report from the oracle with further details.

Current situation

First, let's take a look at the low from the last southerly storm and the current situation. We are in a large-scale low-pressure complex, the core of which is currently located at the southern tip of Scandinavia. The polar vortex is currently rather out of round. To the west and east of our low pressure system and the associated cold air, high pressure prevails far to the north with comparatively milder temperatures. A meridional situation in which the pressure centers are shifting only slowly. The Alps are in a southerly flow - anyone who has been out and about in the northern Alps in the last few days will have noticed something between a fresh southerly wind and a Föhnor gale, depending on the region. The air flowing in from the south is colder than you might expect from a südstau/north föhn, as the core of the steering low lies relatively far to the north. The air mass from the north does not penetrate far into the Mediterranean region and therefore cannot warm up very well there before it reaches us.

The amounts of fresh snow in the south were accordingly quite fluffy, but could not keep up with the record event of the last südstau in terms of quantities. Nevertheless, some stations set further records; in Lienz in East Tyrol, for example, December 2020 is now the snowiest winter month in recorded history. Another interesting fact: the low pressure was very low - in other words, it had an unusually low core pressure. The drop in pressure on the arrival of the low was correspondingly impressive, captured here in a video by MeteoSwiss. Take a look at the MeteoSwiss blog for more background information.

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What's next?

The Föhn and the südstau have calmed down again in the meantime. Today it will be partly cloudy and quite cold in most of the Alpine region. A few snowflakes will fall here and there. It will be sunnier in the south than north of the main ridge. The current will briefly turn to more northerly directions before switching back to the west/southwest tomorrow. It will be widely sunnier. Clouds will increase from the west in the afternoon, although New Year's Eve should still be relatively clear in the eastern Alps. (Fireworks are banned anyway, except where they are permitted - at least according to Austrian regulations). On New Year's Day, the south will see the return of accumulating precipitation, as mentioned at the beginning. This new round of südstau/north föhn is expected to last through the weekend. Only from Monday does the weather look calmer.

The low we have already discussed is still largely responsible for the back-and-forth weather. Squeezed between the flanking highs, it is not making any progress and is wobbling around more or less stationary. Small waves embedded in the large wave produce the somewhat calmer days. Then the action slides back more towards the Mediterranean and picks up another load of precipitation for the Southern Alps. At the moment, the model glass sphere doesn't seem to think that this low will move away any time soon and is betting on a persistent meridional situation with an Atlantic blockade...

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