WeatherBlog 8 2025/26 | It has begun

Current situation

The current weather situation is the result of a collapsed omega blocking, from which a new, stable blocking has quickly developed. A strong area of high pressure over Scandinavia dominates the general weather situation, while low pressure lies over south-western Europe and the Mediterranean region. In between, the Alps are in an easterly to north-easterly flow with a persistent supply of cold air from Eastern Europe.

On the southern flank of the high, the trough has dripped into the Mediterranean and reactivated there. This resulted in the "high over low" situation mentioned by Lea. Such situations are predestined for persistent precipitation on the southern side of the Alps, while the north remains comparatively dry.

This was particularly evident in Piedmont: in a south to south-easterly flow, moist Mediterranean air was brought towards the western Alpine arc and converted into snowfall, sometimes heavy, by orographic uplift. North of the main Alpine ridge, on the other hand, cold, dry air dominated with intermittent clouds but hardly any precipitation.

With the gradual retreat of low pressure activity in the Mediterranean region, the transition to a calmer phase is now on the horizon - a look ahead shows how stable this will be.

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500hPa geopotential with 850hPa temperature, Wednesday 03 UTC.

ECMWF

Europe

IFS

Outlook (Thursday - Sunday)

The active weather will slowly subside on Thursday.

In the eastern Alps, increasingly sunny weather will prevail on the northern side of the Alps, while there will still be denser clouds south of the main ridge. The snowfall will largely end there, with only a few centimetres in the southeast. The air will remain cold, the east to northeast wind will still be noticeable at high altitudes, but will ease as the day progresses.

In the western Alps, the southerly dust situation will deliver one last time. Along the Italian side of the main ridge and especially in Piedmont, it will continue to snow into Thursday. A total of around 20 cm of fresh snow will accumulate there before the snowfall increasingly retreats to the congested areas and weakens. At high altitudes, it will initially remain windy from the southeast.

Friday will then bring a clear calm. Sunny and dry winter weather will dominate in the eastern and western Alps. Remnants of high fog in basin areas will usually clear quickly and the wind will drop significantly. Temperatures will rise slightly but remain in the wintry range.

From Saturday, the high pressure system will finally take over.

Calm winter weather with plenty of sunshine, little wind and initially slightly rising temperatures will set in across the Alps. There are no major weather changes in sight until the middle of next week, after which there will be signs of a slight cooling.

Amount of fresh snow on Thursday.

PG-Wetter

Europe

ICON

Special topic: Weather regimes - the pattern behind the weather

Weather regimes describe large-scale flow patterns that shape the weather over several days to weeks. The ECMWF assigns the complex circulation over the North Atlantic and Europe to four typical regimes using ensemble analyses. They explain why the weather often feels similar for longer - and is not "reinvented" every day.

NAO+ stands for a strong westerly current with mild, often humid Atlantic weather.

NAO- means a weakened westerly drift, more room for cold air from the east or north.

Blocking describes a firmly anchored high over Europe or Scandinavia - calm, dry, often with inversion.

The Atlantic Ridge is a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic that can direct cold air to Central Europe, usually in dry but wintry weather.

Currently, blocking dominates, blocking the westerly flow and ensuring little precipitation. However, the ECMWF regime forecasts show signals of a transition towards the Atlantic Ridge around the turn of the year. This would at least make colder temperatures possible - even if snow is not a foregone conclusion.

Weather regimes do not say where it will snow, but they are very good at showing what kind of weather is possible. This is precisely why they are a valuable tool for looking beyond the forecast horizon.