Polarwirbel

The Alpine region is still under the influence of a high-altitude trough filled with cold, polar air masses, while the Azores High is trying to build up off the European Atlantic coast. Today, Wednesday, a low pressure system will slip from the British Isles towards the Mediterranean and "drip", i.e. leave the main current to remain in the Mediterranean for a while as a genoa low.

While it's just a bit of a flurry in the northern Alps these days, the situation far to the south-east is more exciting, albeit very uncertain. Next week, a phase of extremely wintry temperatures is on the horizon across a large area.

Today, Wednesday, will be very sunny for the most part thanks to the influence of intermediate highs, and any remaining hillside clouds should clear quickly. Thursday will be cloudy with the arrival of a warm front from the west. In the western Alps, it will probably be cloudy from the morning onwards, while it will remain clearer in the east in the morning.

Over the past few days, the Alps have been under the influence of an elongated low-pressure trough that has extended as far as North Africa. Most recently, a small low developed over the Iberian Peninsula, which resulted in a not overly pronounced southerly flow.

An Italian low causes strong südstau. This is followed by a cold front in the north and then mild westerly weather. Cold air masses in north-eastern Canada are responsible for the latter, favoring the development of low pressure in the Atlantic.

There is no doubt that we are still in the area of influence of the massive Omega High with its core in the Danish region. In the southern Alps there were still clouds and the odd snowflake until the beginning of the week, while in the north the sunshine has not been marred by more than a few high foehn clouds for some time. It will become more unsettled towards the weekend and it will snow a little in the north. Also: New Europe Climate Report and other reading tips.

We take a look at where January 2017 ranks in the climate statistics and then consider the current situation and further developments in February: a long phase of cold, dry weather is followed by mild, foehn-like conditions in the north and fairly widespread precipitation in the parched south. It remains to be seen whether this change will last or whether we will soon return to familiar patterns.

Why does only the East get something from the PowderAlert? What happens afterwards? What about the possible weather change at the turn of the year?

There has been virtually nothing new since last week, at least as far as the weather is concerned. One cloudless day follows the next. Temperatures have risen a little at higher altitudes, but in many valleys it's still very chilly under the tough inversion. There is no change in sight for the time being.

After the passage of a warm front today, the current will turn to the southwest. While it will be very mild in the north with a föhn wind, precipitation will set in in the südstau. Further disturbances will follow at the weekend, bringing a lot of precipitation, especially in the south, but with a higher snow line than recently.

To kick off the 2016/17 WeatherBlog season, we are addressing a topical question from PG user Peleiade: "What do I need to read? The polar vortex is weakening, extreme mildness in the Aleutian Islands and there is even a threat of a polar vortex split in early November? What does that mean in terms of fresh snow?"

In contrast to the rest of the winter so far, the Alps have been in a north-easterly flow for a while now (apart from a few foehns), which brings relatively cool weather. Most recently, a drop of cold air paid us a visit. What's it all about and why are we not feeling the otherwise frequent Atlantic influence at the moment?