WeatherBlog 11 2024/25 | Dead winter weather

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Weather situation and outlook

Since the dripping low pressure area over the Gulf of Genoa formed an alliance with a trough over the course of Monday, the Rex block has come to an end. As a result, the temperature gradient between the north and south sides of the Alps, which has repeatedly led to foehn winds in recent days, will disappear from Tuesday morning. From today, Wednesday, until Thursday, Mrs. Holle will try a warm front-cold front combination, but most of it will bounce off the northern side of the Alps. Otherwise there's not much going on. Mild and uneventful westerly weather will characterize the general weather situation. There will be no northerly or even easterly flows and Arctic air masses will continue to avoid Europe. There is no sign of a revival in the winter weather, even in the largest of forecasts.

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Uneventful westerly weather.

ECMWF

IFS

Snow conditions

The snow conditions remain below average across the Alps. Even in Switzerland, where the snow cover in December benefited from some good snowfall on the northern slopes of the Alps, the snow depth is slipping further and further below average. We don't even need to talk about other Alpine regions. We need snow and continued patience.

Below-average snow depths in Switzerland too.

slf.ch

The polar vortex

The polar vortex can explain why the current weather situation in Europe and North America is the way it is. The polar vortex is the predominant cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere over the poles. Circulations in the stratosphere are driven and also disturbed by waves generated in the troposphere. Waves propagate vertically and where their phase velocity equals the circulation velocity - at the critical level - their amplitude goes to infinity and the wave breaks and transfers its momentum to the circulation - wave-circulation interaction. At present, the polar vortex is very stable and fast in the northern hemisphere and is positioned in such a way that arctic cold air outbreaks over North America are favored and, on the other hand, westerly weather over Europe. Winter outbreaks in Europe are often associated with a disrupted or split polar vortex. This is referred to as polar vortex breakdown and, because it leads to strong warming in the stratosphere, also as sudden stratospheric warming. The prospects for this are not given in any model. Where are the undulations of the jet stream caused by global warming? But hope remains, anything is still possible in February. Until then - The Dead Weather.