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WeatherBlog 2 2026/27 | Piedmont Gets Its First Base

Don't believe the hype

11/04/2026
Sebastian Müller

The precipitation radar—which is still under development—and the 48-hour fresh snowfall totals confirm the snowfall in Piedmont!

PG-dev-map
ICON-D2 und librewxr

The precipitation radar—which is still under development—and the 48-hour fresh snowfall totals confirm the snowfall in Piedmont!

PG-dev-map
ICON-D2 und librewxr
We all still remember last year’s Christmas time. The Piedmont region was buried under 2 meters of snow during a heavy snowfall. I was lucky enough to examine it myself with skis and shovel just around the change of years. The snow profile I dug was about 120 cm thick at 2,000 meters and had no weak layers whatsoever. Well, it’s going to snow in a very similar pattern, and a first base layer will be laid down. But the amounts are manageable, and we’re not hyping this up with a “PowderAlert”—our good reputation is too valuable to us. Still, we’d like to take a closer look at this snowfall.

Weather and Snow Conditions

Over the past few days, Central Europe has been under the influence of an extensive but weak-gradient trough, which brought up to thirty centimeters of snow to the eastern edge of the Alps on Monday. An upper-level low is now breaking away from this trough; it is meandering around the Pyrenees and is now heading further east. This is causing a heavy precipitation event over the Tyrrhenian Sea, as is typical for fall. The cold air mass is causing instability, and the warmth and humidity of the Mediterranean are allowing the development of mesoscale convective systems that threaten the Mediterranean coast from Narbonne to Genoa with catastrophic flooding. Meanwhile, in Trieste, the Bora wind raged with speeds of up to 109 km/h. As for snow depths, according to Exolabs and AlpineMeteo, we can’t really see any significant snow heights in the alps anywhere—but that could now change, albeit very locally.

PowderGram from Prali in Piedmont at 1,500 m: Median fresh snow depth around 30 cm, with potential for more!

PG-Map
ICON-EU-EPS

PowderGram from Prali in Piedmont at 1,500 m: Median fresh snow depth around 30 cm, with potential for more!

PG-Map
ICON-EU-EPS

Snowfall in Piedmont

Currently and through Thursday evening, precipitation is moving from east to west into the Piedmont, and as is typical for this time of year, it is likely to be mostly in the form of showers. As of Wednesday at 11:57 p.m., some stations are recording the first significant accumulations of around 20 cm. Similar precipitation is expected on Thursday and Friday, and it’s quite possible that some stations will reach half a meter. The snow line will remain steady at around 1,500 m through Saturday. It won’t get noticeably warmer until Sunday. Conditions like those from a year ago aren’t expected, but the passionate locals will certainly have a good time, and the first base layer of snow could form at higher elevations.

A high-altitude low-pressure system is swirling around the Pyrenees and driving precipitation into the Piedmont.

ECMWF
IFS

A high-altitude low-pressure system is swirling around the Pyrenees and driving precipitation into the Piedmont.

ECMWF
IFS

Norway and the Caucasus

Around the Norwegian Blåmannsisen glacier, the deterministic ICON-EU run forecasts 170 cm of fresh snow over the next 5 days, and even in the ICON-EU-EPS ensemble, the average is over one meter. That sounds like a lot—unless the wind blows it all away and compacts it. In fact, the fresh snow depth is only around 50 cm, since the model calculates snow density based on wind and temperature rather than simply assuming 100 kg/m³. Nevertheless, that sounds like a solid base for large parts of Norway. And even in the Caucasus, where warmth is likely to be a bigger factor than wind, more than half a meter of fresh snow is expected in the coming days. Taking a look at the temperature and wind maps, as well as the fresh snow density and depth, actually helps to better assess the snowfall. It seems that the finer powder can be found in the Caucasus.

It’s probably not realistic to expect 170 cm of fresh snow in 5 days. It’s worth taking a look at the ensemble forecast, the fresh snow depth and density, and the influence masks.

PG-Map
ICON-EU

It’s probably not realistic to expect 170 cm of fresh snow in 5 days. It’s worth taking a look at the ensemble forecast, the fresh snow depth and density, and the influence masks.

PG-Map
ICON-EU

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The people behind the article

  • Written by

    Sebastian Müller

    I'm a Bavarian who emigrated to Trieste and work for Powderguide as a meteorologist, developer of the PG-ICON weather and ski video specialist. Val Saisera is my favourite place for ski tours. I like to bake bread, Apfelstrudel and Frico.

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