Heavy precipitation events on the southern side of the Alps
Heavy precipitation events are generally defined on the basis of threshold values for precipitation intensity and spatial and temporal extent. In scientific works by Dr. Müller S. K., these were analyzed for the Alpine region in observations and reanalyses and regional climate models with the help of a tracking algorithm. The southwestern Alps emerge as a "hotspot" of heavy precipitation events and show a particularly strong climate change signal in the spring months (March-May). The current weather situation corresponds well to this climate science. A deep trough is moving across the Iberian Peninsula and dripping into the Thyrrenian Sea. By Thursday, a semi-independent low-pressure system will have established itself, which will slowly weaken and move eastwards. In this situation, partly polar air masses will also be brought to the northern side of the Alps - the snow line, should it snow, would be barely more than 1000 meters on Thursday. On the southern side of the Alps, subtropical, humid air masses will reach the Alps and it will only snow above 2000 meters. The amounts are considerable to catastrophic. Along the Italian-Swiss border, the center of the precipitation, more than 2 meters of fresh snow is forecast at high altitudes by Friday morning. (Perhaps we need to rethink the interval range of our PG weather.) Accordingly, the rainfall could add up to 300 millimetres within 2 days, and we can only hope that it all runs off without danger. On Friday, the precipitation will concentrate on the eastern Alps and spill over the main Alpine ridge to the north. There will be a small window of good weather in the western Alps before the next trough arrives from the west, bringing more precipitation. So there's no chance of high altitude ski tours for the time being, but perhaps the snow conditions will improve again in the high altitudes of the Eastern Alps.
