WeatherBlog 3 2024/25 | Cold front, then high pressure, then uncertain

Current situation and outlook

The idyllic start to winter last week was all too quickly followed by a jump in temperatures in the other direction and plus degrees in the high mountains. Between November 23 and 24, for example, temperatures rose by more than 15°C at the weather station on the Pitztal Glacier. The decisive factor for this rollercoaster of emotions and temperatures was a striking low over the Atlantic, the front of which transported warm air masses into the Alps. Embedded in a strong westerly current, the controlling low has now moved towards Scandinavia. Yesterday, Tuesday, a small low pressure system brushed the northern Alps and pushed temperatures back down to a slightly more wintry level.

Tomorrow, Thursday (28.11.), a cold front is expected to bring some snow to the northern slopes of the Alps. The amounts will remain manageable on all sides and the snow line is expected to drop to higher altitudes in the valleys. A strong area of high pressure will then move in from the west. However, the models suspect that a low-pressure trough will break away from the large-scale flow and get stuck over the eastern Alps. This will result in a possibly quite strong west-east gradient in the weather character towards the weekend. In the west, it will quickly become sunny again after the front on Thursday and temperatures are also likely to rise quickly. The further east, the longer it will remain cloudy with a few snowflakes in the north. South of the main Alpine ridge, the north föhn will set in with sunnier, relatively cold weather.

Sebastian also notes: The further development of the system is interesting. It is moderating in terms of core pressure, but will reach the Adriatic Sea by the weekend on a track east of the Alps. There, this system, fueled and moistened by the still quite warm sea, can keep itself alive and will bring considerable precipitation to the Balkans, the Peloponnese and finally also Turkey.

From the beginning of next week, the forecast will become much more uncertain. The weather will then tend to pick up again. The forecast currently looks more like changeable westerly weather and less like pronounced cold air advances.

COP29 Review

We are optimistic, well prepared and full of anticipation for the coming winter, while the COP29 participants are certainly leaving Baku tired and largely frustrated after the extension.

Sebastian: After 32 hours of renegotiations, the organizers are celebrating the final paper. As announced, COP29 focused on the financing of adaptation measures for countries affected by climate change. 300 billion euros are to be made available annually by 2035 to combat and prevent climate damage, above all by the industrialized countries. What sounds like a lot, representatives of developing countries see "not just as failure, but as fraud". Climate scientist Niklas Hoehne sees the results as "clearly too little" while Mojib Latif even denies the COP any general effectiveness. So little to no progress is being made, because annual greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. The former euphoria of COP21 in Paris in 2015, when the ambitious 2-degree target was announced, has now been followed by widespread disillusionment. How do we continue to deal with climate change emotionally and rationally? "Imperfect advocacy" is an approach cultivated by POW, for example, which means that despite our personal imperfect climate behavior, we must stand up for climate protection, especially at a political and activist level.

Climate change is a problem that the global community has never had to solve before. Global, immediate and radical action is needed to avert damage that always lies somewhere in the future and can hardly ever be identified as a clear consequence of climate change, and never as the fault of an individual. The measures that would have to be taken, and it has to be said, would cost growth, which is at odds with the capitalist system, and consequently prosperity, which nobody is happy to accept. Climate justice is the next dilemma. How can developing countries be denied the benefits of fossil fuels on which the prosperity of industrialized countries is based? A "correct" emotional and rational attitude towards climate change certainly now involves both disillusionment and the honest admission that the global community is not on the right path and cannot yet outline it credibly.

Lea: I agree with Sebastian's assessment and add to it: There are voices calling for an end to the COP process in light of the frustrating COP. There are also those who say that would be exactly the wrong thing to do. The agreement is more than inadequate, but one has been reached, despite the election results in the USA, the oil-loving host country and everything else that is going wrong. The agreement itself is therefore a sign that there is more than national self-interest and that "the process" - the laborious negotiations, the struggle for compromises - somehow still gives hope.

It is also becoming increasingly clear that "the market" far from any morality, has recognized the benefits of renewable energies, especially the market in China. This year, as in the past, we heard from colleagues who were there that the COP is a chaotic, stressful event that is mainly about chance encounters. High-ranking ministers from various countries may want a briefing on climate change in the Alps or the melting of global ice masses at short notice, you meet leaders of international climate organizations and because no one else has found the room, an exciting conversation develops, etc.

Is it worth it? Who knows...