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WeatherBlog 3 2024/25 | Cold front, then high pressure, then uncertain

After the front is before the front

by Lea Hartl 11/27/2024
After the respectable onset of winter last week, things are now continuing rather cautiously. A cold front reaches the northern Alps on Thursday and brings a few centimetres of fresh snow. High pressure returns at the weekend. This weather blog is a joint effort by Sebastian and Lea!

Current situation and outlook

A cold front with some snow is forecast for tomorrow, Thursday (28 November), on the northern slopes of the Alps. The amounts will remain manageable on all sides and the snow line is expected to drop to higher altitudes in the valleys. A strong area of high pressure will then move in from the west. However, the models suspect that a low-pressure trough will break away from the large-scale flow and get stuck over the eastern Alps. This will result in a possibly quite strong west-east gradient in the weather character towards the weekend. In the west, it will quickly become sunny again after the front on Thursday and temperatures are also likely to rise quickly. The further east, the longer it will remain cloudy with a few snowflakes in the north. South of the main Alpine ridge, there will be a northerly foehn with sunnier, relatively cold weather. 

Sebastian also notes: The further development of the system is interesting. It is moderating in terms of core pressure, but will reach the Adriatic Sea by the weekend on a track east of the Alps. There, this system, fuelled and moistened by the still quite warm sea, can keep itself alive and will bring considerable precipitation to the Balkans, the Peloponnese and finally also Turkey.

From the beginning of next week, the forecast will become much more uncertain. The weather will then tend to pick up again. In the forecast, it currently looks more like changeable westerly weather and less like pronounced cold air advances. 

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Is there a lot or a little snow?

As usual, the answer is "it depends". Even in the relatively small-scale Tyrolean comparison between St. Anton and the Längental valley in Sellrain (see figures in the gallery), we can see that St. Anton currently has an above-average amount of snow, while the Längental valley does not. At both locations, the entire current snow cover comes from the aforementioned onset of winter last week. On a long-term average (1991-2020), there is seasonal snow cover in St. Anton from around mid-November, in the higher Längental valley from around the beginning of October. At the station in Sellrain, the striking snowfall event at the end of September is also clearly visible - we remember the first CRs and short-term wintry conditions for the opening of the season on the glaciers. 

The Swiss map of relative snow depths clearly shows that the lower altitudes have benefited greatly from last week's snow. The snow depths in the Rhone Valley and in the northern Alpine foothills are well above average. At higher altitudes, on the other hand, there is less snow than usual for the time of year. 

The question "is there enough snow" can also be legitimately asked. Here are some anecdotal observations by the WetterBlog from the Axamer Lizum, where skiing operations, initially limited to one piste, began at the weekend: 

  • You don't actually need any snow for the ascent, 

  • No snow at all can even be advantageous for the ascent, because skins hold better on grass than on slippery artificial snow at the same steepness, 

  • but artificial snow tends to be helpful for the descent, 

  • .

The WetterBlog is still waiting for a sustainable winter.

COP29 Revue

We are optimistic, well prepared and full of anticipation for the coming winter, while the COP29 participants will no doubt leave Baku tired and largely frustrated after the extra time.

Sebastian: After 32 hours of renegotiations, the organisers are celebrating the final paper. As announced, COP29 focussed on the financing of adaptation measures for countries affected by climate change. 300 billion euros are to be made available annually by 2035 to combat and prevent climate damage, primarily from industrialised countries. What sounds like a lot, representatives of developing countries see "not just as a failure, but as a fraud" Climate scientist Niklas Hoehne considers the results to be "clearly too little", while Mojib Latif even denies the COP any general effectiveness. So little to no progress is being made, because annual greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. The former euphoria of COP21 in Paris in 2015, when the ambitious 2-degree target was announced, has now been followed by widespread disillusionment. How do we continue to deal with climate change emotionally and rationally? "Imperfect advocacy" is an approach cultivated by POW, for example, which means that despite our personal imperfect climate behaviour, we must stand up for climate protection, especially at a political and activist level.

Climate change is a problem that the global community has never had to solve before. Global, immediate and radical action is needed to avert damage that always lies somewhere in the future and can hardly ever be identified as a clear consequence of climate change, and never as the fault of an individual. The measures that would have to be taken, and it has to be said, would cost growth, which is at odds with the capitalist system, and consequently prosperity, which nobody is happy to accept. Climate justice is the next dilemma. How can developing countries be denied the benefits of fossil fuels on which the prosperity of industrialised countries is based? A "correct" emotional and rational attitude towards climate change certainly involves both disillusionment and the honest admission that the global community is not on the right path and is not yet able to outline it credibly.

Lea: I agree with Sebastian's assessment and would like to add: There are voices calling for an end to the COP process in view of the frustrating COP. There are also those who say that would be exactly the wrong thing to do. The agreement is more than inadequate, but one has been reached, despite the election results in the USA, the oil-loving host country and everything else that is going wrong. The agreement itself is therefore a sign that there is more than national self-interest and that "the process" - the arduous negotiations, the struggle for compromises - somehow still offers hope.

It is also becoming increasingly clear that "the market" has recognised the benefits of renewable energies, far from any morality, especially the market in China. This year, as in the past, we heard from colleagues who were there that the COP is a chaotic, stressful event that is mainly about chance meetings. High-ranking ministers from various countries may want a briefing on climate change in the Alps or the melting of global ice masses at short notice, you meet leaders of international climate organisations and because no one else has found the room, an exciting conversation develops, etc.

Is it worth it? Who knows...

Photo gallery

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