WeatherBlog 12/2015 | Report on this year's Groundhogday

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Marmota Monax is also known by another pseudonym in the English-speaking world, namely Groundhog. In Pennsylvania, which has been shaped by German immigrants since the 19th century, Groundhog Day is traditionally celebrated on February 2, a festival in which the ground hog predicts the further course of winter. The custom probably goes back to ancient European peasant rules, possibly also to the Celtic festival Imbolg, also known as G?yl Fair y Canhwyllau. The first North American records of this come from a diary entry by Pennsylvanian shopkeeper James Morris from February 4, 1841:

Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candelmas day, the day on which, according to the Germans,the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate.

The citizens of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, have celebrated Groundhog Day every year since at least 1886 with the help of groundhog Phil, who lives in a hole in the ground on a hill called Gobbler's Knob. Phil looks out of his hole at sunrise and if he sees his shadow (because it is sunny), he knows it will be winter for another 6 weeks. However, if he cannot see his shadow (because it is cloudy), it will soon be spring. Phil's predictions are translated by the elite inner circle of the local Groundhog Club and passed on to the public.

This year's forecast from Phil:

In addition to Phil, there are numerous other American woodchucks who are professionally involved in long-term forecasting. They don't always agree exactly in their forecasts, although they are usually right somewhere and any supposed uncertainties are purely due to differences in scale, even if the American weather service NOAA claims otherwise.

This year, in addition to Punxsutawney Phil, Chattanooga Chuck, Chuckles, Fred, Grady the Groundhog, Holtsville Hal, Malverne Mel, Mount Joy Minnie, Oil Springs Ollie, Poor Richard, Queen Charlotte, Shubenacadie Sam, Uni, Western Maryland Murray, Woodstock Willie, and Murray (filling in for the indisposed Woody) are expecting another six weeks of winter. Stormy Marmot, Staten Island Chuck, Dunkirk Dave, Balzac Billy, Buckeye Chuck, Cocalico Cal, Dover Doug, French Creek Freddie, General Beauregard Lee, Manitoba Marv, Nibbles, Octorara Orphie, Sir Walter Wally, Susquehanna Sherman, Wiarton Willie and Winnipeg Willow, on the other hand, are expecting a switch to spring-like weather soon.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio was again in attendance at this year's Staten Island Chuck prediction, though he was not allowed to hold Chuck this time because he dropped Chuck's replacement, Charlotte, last year. Charlotte died shortly afterwards, allegedly from internal injuries caused by the fall. De Blasio had been wearing elbow-length protective gloves, which may have prevented him from performing 100 percent in the woodchuck juggling. The protective gloves were necessary because Chuck de Blasio bit predecessor Bloomberg's hand when Bloomberg tried to pull Chuck out of his burrow at an earlier ceremony.

De Blasio Fails 2014 Ceremony:

The most controversial prediction this year came from Jimmy from Sun Prairie, Wisconsin. After Jimmy arrived in a white stretch limousine, Jimmy's assistant held it near Mayor Jonathan Freund's ear so Jimmy could tell him his prediction. The mayor misrepresented the forecast, whereupon Jimmy bit him on the ear. After some discussion, Jimmy and the mayor came to an agreement and released a joint written statement: spring is coming.

We'll leave the potentially considerable amounts of fresh snow in the south-east to our colleague Powder Alarm. For those who really want to find out something useful about the current weather, here.