White Christmas - a look back in the face of climate change
Before we look back at this year, it is worth taking a brief look at the statistics. It is important to know that such evaluations are always based on reference periods and work with reanalysis data such as the ERA5 dataset. As already explained in the special topic of WeatherBlog 4 2025/26, this allows long-term trends to be classified well, but individual Christmases can never be explained exactly.
A white Christmas is not a feeling, it is measurable: In many countries, people talk about it when there is snow on the ground on December 24.
An analysis by Daan van den Broek based on snow cover data makes it clear: snow cover on Christmas Eve has decreased significantly since the 1950s. This actually affects the whole of Europe except for Ireland, England, the north coast of France, the Alps and the northern part of the Scandinavian countries. There is still snow at higher altitudes, but even there the snow guarantee is increasingly shifting towards the height of winter.
The situation is similar in North America, with data analyzed by NOAA Climate.gov showing very clearly that the probability of a white Christmas is decreasing almost everywhere, especially at lower altitudes and in regions with a maritime influence. While there was still regular snow on the ground in many places in the 1960s and 1970s, a white Christmas is now often the exception.
White Christmases used to be more common - not every year, but statistically much more often than today. The fact that we still experience white Christmases time and again is less down to statistics than to the natural variability of the weather.
And that is precisely why we are now looking forward to this year.
