El Niño

Since last Sunday, a cold snap has had not only the Alps but also large parts of Central Europe firmly in its grip. To the east of a massive, blocking high in the Atlantic, cold air from the polar regions is being directed towards us. Snow showers are causing confusion in the northern German lowlands, in many places there is concern about frost damage to the fruit blossom and in the mountains, everyone who didn't give up on winter in February is going in search of a few more powder turns.

What was in short supply during the height of winter is now being made up for: With a strong push of cold air over Central Europe, the next late winter interlude is on the horizon for the weekend. Gardening enthusiasts should perhaps not put frost-sensitive plants outside just yet, while winter lovers will be delighted with the polar air expected by the models.

The Mediterranean lows that have been so frequent in recent winters have been rare so far this season. Low pressure system Virginie ends the west/northwest trend, at least in the (very) short term, and the south-east can be happy.

As the freeride bible says: "If Ullr doesn't come to the Oracle with powder, the Oracle has to go to British Columbia". Or something like that. Because in contrast to a normal El Niño winter (where it would be dry and warm here), it snows non-stop in BC and the northwest of the USA.

The WeatherBlog is currently receiving a lot of questions about El Niño, which is this year - or was it La Niña? What is all this again and what does it mean for the Alps? Haven't we covered this topic before? Yes, we have. To start with: there is still no clear, statistically definitive correlation between El Niño and the Alpine winter that anyone can agree on.

We are currently under the influence of a Mediterranean low whose frontal southerly flow is causing foehn winds in the northern Alps. The low is now slowly ending its rather long stay over the Iberian Peninsula and moving eastwards. The Föhn should be over here by Thursday and the unusually rainy days in the Sahara(!) will also come to an end. The precipitation already present on the southern slopes of the Alps will spread to the north, where it will be supported by a cold front from the NW.

Last Friday, tropical cyclone Pam brushed the island state of Vanuatu in the southwest Pacific. The climate there has two seasons, a cold and dry one from May to October and a warm and wet one from November to April. Cyclones occur in the latter. On average, Vanuatu is affected by two to three cyclones per year, with three to five causing severe damage per decade.

Every year, we wish for reliable announcements that the winter will be great, preferably including a great forecast for the long weekend when the ski trip is already booked. Every year there is no such thing. This week's WeatherBlog deals with the following question from PG reader Benny_Supernova: If you now combine that (last week's polar vortex topic) with a 65% chance of an upcoming "El Nino" in the Northern Hemisphere winter, what does that add up to? Another "hammer winter" in the Northern Alps (e.g. Innsbruck, where my best skiing buddy lives)?

The WeatherBlog was written a little earlier than usual due to vacation plans and appears here with a time delay, so we tend to deal with less current things. From today's perspective (Monday), the weather is looking increasingly April-like in the near future, with slightly lower temperatures (as would be expected in April) and occasional, sometimes heavier, thundery precipitation. Note: The thunderstorm season is open!

Nothing fundamental is changing in the Alps for the time being: in the north, spring flowers are swaying in the foehn, in the south it is raining or snowing heavily. This week, we look beyond the Alps and take a look at tropical oceans and fire-breathing mountains in Indonesia.