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WeatherBlog 13 2024/25 | A winter on a rollercoaster

Quo vadis Winter?

02/05/2025 by Sebastian Müller
January is over, but the winter is still not very wintery. A few short episodes of fresh snow made for spectacular images - especially at the Freeride World Tour in Val Thorens, which will be remembered for its impressive lines and deep powder. Nevertheless, the snow conditions are below average in many places. There is hope for a sustainable return of winter, but the weather situation remains complicated.

Weather situation

The ridge of high pressure announced last week has moved far north into the Arctic Ocean and established itself as an independent area of high pressure over the Barents Sea. It only slowly merged with the high over Eastern Europe on Tuesday evening. At the same time, a wedge of low pressure remained stationary over Eastern Europe, while a new high pressure influence slowly built up over Central Europe. This constellation led to inversion weather conditions in the Alps: dense high fog persisted in the valleys while the sun shone on the mountains. The air remained largely dry and at least the risk of avalanches calmed down with the stable weather. Those who had the opportunity to get out and about last week found good conditions for ski touring and freeriding in many places, with plenty of sunshine and some powder.

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Forecast

The weather situation will begin to change significantly from today (Wednesday). In the forecast, the wedge of low pressure in Eastern Europe will emancipate itself, drip off to form an independent high-pressure low and move retrograde to Central Europe. High pressure will then prevail as far as Scandinavia and we will find a high-over-low situation. The low pressure system wobbles around, supported by disturbances from the Atlantic and moist air masses from the Mediterranean - a rollercoaster ride of winter weather. Precipitation is then expected on the southern side of the Alps at the weekend. The snow line will be decisive, but snowfall is expected at least at medium altitudes above 1500 metres. A look at the ICON-EU Ensemble Prediction System shows how sensitive this weather situation is in terms of snow line and amount of fresh snow: on the southern side of the Western Alps, accumulated amounts of fresh snow of both 1 cm (ensemble minimum) and 184 cm (ensemble maximum) are possible.

Not all snow is the same

Last week, our trainee Michael dug some snow samples as part of the Alpine course at the Tyrolean State Ski Instructors' Association. He also came up with our special topic for this week: "Not all snow is the same". When analysing snow samples and stability tests, we repeatedly noticed a thick layer of floating snow. That's why this week's topic is snow transformation processes. When snow falls fresh and powdery from the sky, its transformation begins immediately after landing. But what does this mean for freeriders and ski tourers? Why can these processes be so decisive for snow conditions and the risk of avalanches?

Decomposing conversion

During the degradative transformation, the originally sharp-edged snow crystals gradually disintegrate, round off and become increasingly densely packed. Two processes are primarily responsible for this - one mechanical and one thermal:

Mechanical conversion:

When the wind transports snow, the crystals break up, compacting the snow cover.

Thermal conversion:

If the temperature remains relatively constant over a longer period of time, the crystals change towards a rounder shape. This happens because a spherical structure is energetically more stable than an angular one. The result: the snow becomes firmer and more compact. This type of transformation often helps to create a stable base for the snow cover.

Constructive conversion

Accumulating snow transformation occurs when there are large temperature differences within the snow cover. This is particularly common with a thin snow cover when the ground is warmer than the snow surface. This temperature gradient also creates a water vapour pressure gradient - water vapour rises upwards in the snow cover and accumulates again on the crystals. This causes angular, loose crystals to grow, which are no longer connected to each other. If this process occurs within the snowpack, it is referred to as floating snow or "dead snow" - an extremely unstable layer. If it occurs on the surface of the snow, the result is "surface rime" - a thin but extremely fragile weak layer that can lead to problems with fresh snow or wind drifting. These loose, sugary layers are often treacherous as they form the perfect basis for avalanches.

Why is this important?

The most common type of avalanche that affects winter sports enthusiasts is the slab avalanche. Three main ingredients are needed to trigger it:

1. a weak layer - often a loose layer created by a build-up transformation.

2. a bound snow cover - i.e. an overlying layer compacted by decomposition.

3. an additional load - such as a skier or a snowfall that exceeds the critical limit.

When these factors come together, the snowpack on the weak layer can slide off. It is therefore highly recommended for anyone travelling in the backcountry to look at the snowpack, recognise possible weak layers and interpret their avalanche risk.

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